Pakistan CPI Inflation surged to 28.3% in Jan 2024

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Pakistan CPI Inflation surged to 28.3% in Jan 2024

Pakistan CPI inflation increased to 28.3% on year-on-year basis in January 2024 as compared to an increase of 29.7% in the previous month and 27.6% in January 2023.

On month-on-month basis, it increased to 1.8% in January 2024 as compared to an increase of 0.8% in the previous month and an increase of 2.9% in January 2023.

Inflation in Urban areas increased to 30.2% on year-on-year basis in January 2024 as compared to an increase of 30.9% in the previous month and 24.4% in January 2023. On month-on-month basis, it increased to 1.8% in January 2024 as compared to an increase of 0.7% in the previous month and an increase of 2.4% in January 2023. 3.

Rural inflation increased to 25.7% on year-on-year basis in January 2024 as compared to an increase of 27.9% in the previous month and 32.3% in January 2023. On month-on-month basis, it increased to 1.9% in January 2024 as compared to an increase of 1.0% in the previous month and an increase of 3.6% in January 2023.

Pakistan has a record 128Mn people as registered voters: FAFEN

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Pakistan has a record 128Mn people as registered voters: FAFEN

With the fifth-highest number of registered voters globally, Pakistan has a record 128 million people, constituting over half of its total population, registered as voters for the upcoming general elections marking a substantial increase of 22.5 million voters including 12.5 million women added since 2018, said Free and Fair Elections Network (FAFEN) on Wednesday.

According to a FAFEN report titled “Electoral Rolls, General Election 2024,” this unprecedented surge brings the total number of registered voters to 128,585,760 in 2024, marking a significant rise from 106,000,239 in 2018 and 86,189,828 in 2013 making Pakistan fifth largest democracy in the world trailing India, Indonesia, the United States of America and Brazil.

This is also the first time that Pakistan registered more women voters as compared to men in-between two elections. Presently, the number of registered voters constitutes 53.2 percent of the 241.49million population. Nevertheless, there are regional disparities in voter-to-population ratios, with Punjab (57 percent) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (53 percent) registering over half of their populations as voters. Sindh and Islamabad have voter-to-population ratios close to 50 percent, while Balochistan lags behind with 36 percent population registered as voters.

The voter-to-population ratio can be indicative of potential under-registration with a caveat. The ratio only accounts for voters registered in their native districts and not those who are registered as voters on their temporary addresses outside their native districts. At the district and constituency levels, the disparity in voter proportions becomes increasingly apparent.

Among the 136 districts analysed by FAFEN, 78 have more than half of their populations registered as voters, while nine districts including Upper Kohistan, Lower Kohistan, Kohistan Palas, Kech, Kharan, Panjgur, Sherani, Surab and Washuk have less than 30 percent population registered. A comparable trend is noted at the National Assembly constituency level, with 159 out of 266 constituencies registering over 50 percent of their populations as voters.

FAFEN acknowledges the progress made in women’s voter registration but calls for continued efforts to address persistent challenges, particularly in regions and age groups where gender gaps are more pronounced.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024

ECP has announced public holiday on Feb 8 for polls

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ECP has announced public holiday on Feb 8 for polls

The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) Thursday issued a notification announcing a public holiday on February 8, the day when the country’s crucial polls will held after more than five years.

The purpose of the public holiday is to enable voters to vote freely and easily, the ECP said in its notification.

The development was announced following a key meeting held at the electoral authority’s office in Islamabad today, where discussions around the state of law and order in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan have also taken place.

A day earlier, the Punjab government decided to keep schools, colleges and universities across the province closed from February 6 to 9 in the backdrop of the general elections.

As per the Punjab cabinet, the decision would apply on public and private educational institutes both.

Finance ministry forecast inflation at 27.5-28.5% in January

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Finance ministry forecast inflation at 27.5-28.5% in January

Pakistan’s headline inflation is expected to remain high at 27.5-28.5% in January 2024, the Finance Division said in its Monthly Economic Update and Outlook released on Wednesday.

“The elevated prices of perishables and vegetables, coupled with increased utility costs (electricity and gas), have contributed to the inflationary pressure,” the outlook read.

According to the monthly report, there has been surge in onion export orders following the Indian ban that strained local supply and increased domestic prices. Specific commodities, such as tomatoes, witnessed price hikes due to supply disruptions caused by severe weather, intensifying the demand-supply gap. Similarly, chicken prices rose due to reduced supply, particularly from controlled sheds experiencing higher input costs.

“However, the government has taken measures to reduce onion export by increasing the minimum export price and also lifted the ban on soyabean import which would ease the supply situation of perishables and chicken,” it said.

Moreover, a decline in fuel cost in January offered a “promising counterbalance”, potentially mitigating the overall impact on consumers and production sectors, the report added.

“Keeping in view the above coupled with the high base effect, inflation is anticipated to remain around 27.5-28.5 percent in January 2024 and further ease out to 26.5-27.5 percent in February 2024.”

FED Hold Policy Rate Unchanged As Expected

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FED Hold Policy Rate Unchanged As Expected

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday sent a tepid signal that it is done raising interest rates but made it clear that it is not ready to start cutting.

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have moderated since early last year but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.

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The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.

In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans.

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The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

In a related action, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve the establishment of the primary credit rate at the existing level of 5.5 percent

Toshakhana reference: Imran, wife Bushra sentenced 14-year jail time

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Toshakhana reference: Imran, wife Bushra sentenced 14-year jail time

An accountability court awarded Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) founder Imran Khan and his wife Bushra Bibi 14 years of rigorous jail time each in the Tohsakhana reference filed by the National Accountability Bureau (NAB).

The court has also imposed a fine of Rs1.5 billion on the couple and disqualified the former premier from holding public office for 10 years.

During the previous hearing, which was also held at Adiala jail, the court recorded Bushra Bibi’s statement under Section 342.

Khan told the court that his wife had nothing to do with the case and was being humiliated by being forcibly dragged into it.

At the outset of the hearing today, Judge Bashir asked Khan if he recorded his statement. To this, the former premier said that he would submit his statement once his lawyers came.

“I have been deceived as I was only called to mark my attendance for the hearing,” said the PTI founder.

Following the verdict, Bushra Bibi, who was not present in court when the sentence was announced, arrived at the Adiala jail and surrendered before the authorities.

SAZEW records Profit of Rs1.4bn in 1HFY24

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SAZEW records Profit of Rs1.4bn in 1HFY24

Sazgar Engineering Works Limited (PSX: SAZEW) has announced the Earning for 1HFY24, wherein the profit after tax clocked in at Rs1.41 billion [EPS: Rs23.4] compared to a profit of Rs79.11Mn [EPS: Rs1.31] in the same period last year (SPLY).

Going by the results, the company’s turnover surged by 3.04 YoY to Rs14.53bn as compared to Rs4.78bn in SPLY.

Likewise, the cost of sales grew by 2.67x YoY. However, the growth in sales outpaced the rise in costs, leading to a significant improvement in gross profit by 517.14% YoY, reaching Rs3.12bn in 1HFY24.

On the expense side, the company observed an increase in Distribution and marketing expenses and other expenses to clock in at Rs556.03m and Rs173.49m respectively during the review period.

Similarly, the burden of administrative expenses increased by 60.16% YoY to Rs158.02, in 1HFY24.

However, SAZEW’s earnings during this period were significantly supported by its other income which stood at Rs186.46m in 1HFY24 as compared to just Rs3.77m in SPLY, reflecting a massive growth.

Additional benefits were realized through eased financing, as the company’s finance costs contracted by 21.38% YoY, amounting to Rs71.35m compared to Rs90.76m in 1HFY23.

On the tax front, the company paid a substantially higher tax worth Rs931.41m against the Rs19.51m paid in the corresponding period of last year.

In addition to the financial results, the Board of Directors of the company in their meeting held today has approved the purchase of a piece of land measuring nearly 20 kanals, valued at approximately Rs165 million (subject to actual land measurement).

Gold price in Pakistan drops by Rs4,500 per tola in January

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Gold price in Pakistan drops by Rs4,500 per tola in January

Domestic bullion has started 2024 on a negative note as the price of 24-karat gold has dropped by Rs4,500 per tola to Rs215,500 in January.

The move lower comes amid a drop in international prices and the continuous strengthening of the Pakistani rupee (PKR).

In today’s session, domestic gold snapped its two-day winning streak, with the 24-karat gold witnessing a decline of Rs600 per tola.

The Karachi Sarafa Association reported that 10-gram 24-karat gold was being sold at Rs184,756, showing a rise of Rs515 from the previous day.

While the price of 10-gram 22-karat gold was reported at Rs169,360.

Meanwhile, silver prices remained stable in the domestic market, with 24-karat silver being sold at Rs2,600 per tola and Rs2,229.08 per 10-gram.

International spot gold is currently trading at $2,040.19 [1:44pm PST], up by 0.16% compared to the previous session’s closing.

However, the rate reported by the association stood at $2,055, down by $2 compared to the previous day’s rate.

It is important to mention that the international spot rate is currently down by 1.11% this month driven by expectations of a rate cut by the U.S. Fed.

However, with escalating tensions in the Middle East and diminishing hopes of rate cut, the appeal for safe-haven assets has risen, signaling a bullish trend for gold.

Govt jacks up Petrol price by Rs13.55 per litre

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Govt jacks up Petrol price by Rs13.55 per litre

The caretaker government on Wednesday hiked the price of petrol by Rs13.55 per litre for the next fortnight.

The new price of petrol is now Rs272.89 per litre from the previous price of Rs259.34, according to a notification from the Finance Division.

The price of high-speed diesel (HSD) was increased by Rs2.75 to Rs278.96 per litre.

IMF’s review mission expected to visit Pakistan after Feb 8 polls

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IMF’s review mission expected to visit Pakistan after Feb 8 polls

A review mission of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is likely to be dispatched to conduct talks with Islamabad after Pakistan’s much anticipated general elections, scheduled to be held on February 8.

The review mission is set to visit Pakistan for talks regarding the $3 billion Standby Arrangement (SBA) programme, The News reported.

According to a confirmation received by The News from top official sources, the “Fund has not yet confirmed the exact schedule for conducting the second review, so the upcoming review talks are expected to be held after the general elections”.

In its latest staff report, the IMF also hinted that the date of the second review was revised at the time of the signing of the SBA agreement in July 2023. The second review for the end of December 2023 was planned for March 1, 2024.

Now the Pakistani side proposed the review schedule for March 15, 2024, indicating that the review completion date was changed with the possibility that talks for a second review might be held after the February 8, 2024 elections.

The existing SBA programme of the IMF is scheduled to be accomplished on April 12, 2024. In case the second review is completed till mid of March, then the Fund’s Executive Board would have sufficient time to approve the last tranche of $1.1 billion for Pakistan by the second of April 2024.

It is not known how the transition from the SBA to another medium-term programme would happen when there would be a political transition in Pakistan.

Earlier, there were reports that the mainstream political parties had asked to accomplish the second review during the tenure of the caretaker setup. There are still chances that the Fund review might be done before the formation of the new government.

Many insiders believe that after the general elections, the formation of the new government was expected to be accomplished by the end of February, so the IMF review mission might visit Islamabad before the formation of the new government and complete the second review.

In April 2024, the IMF will again be visiting Pakistan to strike a broader agreement on the fresh medium-term loan programme based on which the next budget for 2024-25 will be formulated. It will be up to the next government whether it will be able to sign the fresh IMF programme before the announcement of the budget or it might be done till the approval of the budget from the upcoming elected parliament.

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